In brief

• Flash estimate from Statistics Poland (GUS): inflation in October was 3.5% year on year, compared with 4.1% in September.
• Prices fell 0.4% month on month, and fuel became 9.7% cheaper.
• Fuel is, however, 21.7% more expensive than a year ago.
• Energy rose 6.0% year on year, while food fell 0.1% year on year.

Inflation lower than expected

According to GUS's flash estimate, consumer inflation fell to 3.5% year on year in October from 4.1% in September (Inflacja w październiku zaskoczyła ekspertów. Nowe dane GUS mówią o spadku cen – eska.pl) (Inflacja znów zaskoczyła. Takich danych mało kto się spodziewał – wprost.pl) (Inflacja wyhamowała mocniej od prognoz. GUS podał dane za październik – RMF24). The market consensus assumed 3.7%. Month on month, prices fell 0.4% (Inflacja nagle zahamowała. Najnowsze dane GUS zaskakują – obserwatorgospodarczy.pl), while the market had expected a decline of 0.2%. In September, prices had risen 0.7% month on month.

Fuel pulls the index down

The largest monthly drag came from fuels for private transport, which became 9.7% cheaper compared with September. Year on year, however, they were 21.7% more expensive.

Energy rises, food stands still

Energy, gas and other fuels rose 1.6% month on month and 6.0% year on year. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 0.3% month on month, while year on year they were 0.1% lower.

Data in numbers

• Inflation year on year: 4.1% in September, 3.5% in October
• Fuels year on year: 21.7%
• Energy year on year: 6.0%
• Food year on year: minus 0.1%

NBP target

Reading of 3.5%