Position of RPP Member

• Marcin Zarzecki from the RPP does not rule out an interest rate hike in November, although he considers it unlikely.
• For a hike to occur, at least two of three factors would need to be present: a weaker zloty, persistent core inflation, or rising energy prices.
• Before the summer, the market mainly considered interest rate cuts; now, the scenario of hikes has become realistic.
• Higher rates would mean an increase in payments for loans with variable interest rates.

Marcin Zarzecki stated in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not foresee a change in interest rates at the November meeting, but he does not dismiss such a possibility (Interest rate hike possible this year. Voice from RPP – com.pl). A similar assessment is presented by Adam Glapiński, the president of the National Bank of Poland.

What Would Need to Happen

According to the RPP member, three phenomena could lead to an interest rate hike: a weakening zloty, continued elevated core inflation, and rising energy prices (RPP under pressure from a weak zloty. Marcin Zarzecki does not rule out an interest rate hike - Puls Biznesu - pb.pl – pb.pl). Zarzecki emphasizes that at least two of these factors would need to occur simultaneously for a tightening of monetary policy.

Change in Market Expectations

Before the summer, analysts more frequently spoke about possible interest rate cuts, and the scenario of hikes was practically not considered. In recent months, the situation has reversed, and tightening monetary policy has become a realistically considered option.

What This Means for Borrowers

An eventual interest rate hike would translate into higher payments for mortgage and cash loans with variable interest rates. For now, this is just a possibility, not a certainty. The final decision will be made by the Council at the meeting, taking into account data on inflation and the exchange rate of the zloty.