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Revenue estimate

• Poland's Finance Ministry expects its windfall tax on fuel companies to raise about 5.2 billion zlotys.
• The total includes 4 billion zlotys for March–December 2026 and about 1.2 billion zlotys for the first quarter of 2027, added by parliament.
• The money is meant to offset the CPN fuel price relief program, whose first two editions cost roughly the same amount.
• Under the third edition of CPN, daily price caps for Friday, Oct. 23, are 6.56 zlotys for 95-octane gasoline and 7.99 zlotys for diesel.

In a reply to the Polish Press Agency (PAP), the Finance Ministry said the windfall tax on fuel companies should raise about 5.2 billion zlotys (Miliardy z kieszeni gigantów paliwowych. Rząd policzył zyski z nowego podatku – bankier.pl) (Ponad 5 mld zł od paliwowych gigantów. Ministerstwo oszacowało wpływy – businessinsider.com.pl). The figure combines two forecasts: an earlier 4 billion zlotys for March to December 2026, plus about 1.2 billion zlotys the ministry now expects for the first quarter of 2027.

Taxed period extended in parliament

The government's original draft taxed only profits earned from March to December 2026. During parliamentary work, lawmakers extended the taxed period to cover all of the first quarter of 2027. As a result, the expected total rose above the earlier estimate of about 4 billion zlotys (Podatek od koncernów paliwowych. MF liczy na 5,2 mld zł wpływów - Super Biznes – se.pl).

Estimated windfall tax revenue (billion zlotys)

• March–December 2026: 4
• Q1 2027: 1.2
• Total: 5.2

Money to offset fuel price relief

The revenue is intended to help fund the "Ceny Paliwa Niżej" (CPN, "Lower Fuel Prices") program, which caps prices at filling stations. The expected 5.2 billion zlotys roughly matches what the first two editions of the program cost the state (Resort finansów wyliczył, ile wpłynie do budżetu z podatku od nadmiarowych zysków – wnp.pl).

The third edition of CPN took effect on Oct. 3. It temporarily lowers VAT and excise duty on fuel and is set to run until the end of 2026 (Ceny paliw przed weekendem. Nowe stawki – TVN24).

Daily price caps

The energy minister sets maximum prices every day. They are calculated from the average domestic wholesale price, with excise duty, the fuel fee, the retail margin and VAT added (Kierowcy muszą się przygotować na zmiany. Są powody do zadowolenia – fakt.pl). For Friday, Oct. 23, the caps are 6.56 zlotys per liter for 95-octane gasoline, 7.28 zlotys for 98-octane and 7.99 zlotys for diesel. On Wednesday, Oct. 21, the limits were 6.70 zlotys, 7.43 zlotys and 7.98 zlotys (Maksymalne ceny paliw. Ile zapłacimy na stacjach? - PolsatNews.pl – polsatnews.pl).