In brief

• Brent crude oil prices fell below $90 a barrel, their lowest level since August.
• The sell-off followed signals from Washington that further attacks on Iran are not planned.
• Brent lost more than 16% over the week, its sharpest decline since 2020.
• The market still prices in the risk of renewed conflict, so companies should plan their fuel costs cautiously.

Oil slump after Trump's remarks

Crude oil prices fell on Monday to their lowest levels since August. Brent dropped below $90 a barrel (Cena ropy Brent zeszła poniżej 90 USD. Trump sygnalizuje, że USA nie wznowią ataków na Iran – Puls Biznesu) (Dobre wiadomości dla kierowców. Cena ropy naftowej zeszła poniżej kolejnej granicy – Business Insider Polska), while the American WTI grade fell below $85. The sell-off was driven by the statement of the U.S. president, who indicated that Washington does not plan further strikes on Iran. Investors increasingly hope for a diplomatic end to the conflict.

Scale of the weekly sell-off

This is the sharpest weekly decline since 2020 (Ceny ropy. Powiększa się najmocniejszy tygodniowy spadek od 2020 r. – Money.pl) (Ceny ropy spadają. Takiej przeceny nie było od 2020 roku – TVN24). On Monday morning, Brent for January 2027 was losing about 1.6% and traded at $96.74 a barrel, while WTI for December was around $89.82, or 1.11% lower. Over the past week Brent lost more than 16% (Największe tygodniowe spadki ropy od lat. Rynki czekają na porozumienie z Iranem – Interia Biznes).

The risk remains

Brokers point out that the benchmark still carries a high risk premium, because a resumption of hostilities is possible. The conflict hampers supplies of raw materials from the Persian Gulf. The war between the USA and Israel with Iran began at the end of February, and the April ceasefire has been extended many times, although violations have occurred (Цены на нефть пережили крупнейший за шесть лет обвал – Charter 97) (Spadek cen ropy po wyborach w USA. „To sugestia: kończmy tę wojnę” – RMF24).

What it may mean for businesses

Transport, courier and mobile service companies will feel changes in fuel prices the fastest, because oil reacts most strongly to news from the Middle East. Analysts warn, however, that after the sell-off a rebound may follow if the talks fail (Рынок нефти развернулся после выборов в США — почему цены падают четвертый день подряд – NV). Entrepreneurs should therefore plan fuel budgets cautiously rather than assume a lasting decline.

Read also

• Ropa Brent powyżej 112 dolarów. Najwyżej od maja, paliwa w Polsce mogą podrożeć
• USA i Iran rozpatrują nowe propozycje pośredników. Stawką jest uniknięcie kolejnej eskalacji
• Ceny ropy i oleju napędowego: wyścig o odbudowę rezerw strategicznych