Democrats Lead in All Seven Key Senate Races Before Tuesday's Midterms

In brief

• Siena College polling for The New York Times shows Democratic candidates leading in all seven key Senate races ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
• The largest leads are in Michigan (11 points) and Texas (7 points), both above the poll's margin of error.
• The results will determine the balance of power in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats to Democrats' 47.

Democrats ahead in all seven key races

Democratic candidates lead in each of seven Senate races that will shape control of the chamber, according to a Siena College poll for The New York Times published on Sunday (Demokraci mogą zgarnąć pulę. Spory problem frakcji Donalda Trumpa – Polsat News) (USA na ostatniej prostej przed wyborami. Sondaże łaskawe dla Demokratów – Onet). At the start of the campaign, Republicans were the clear favorites to keep their majority.

Margins by state

The largest leads are in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is ahead by 11 percentage points, and Texas, where James Talarico leads by 7 points. Both leads are larger than the poll's margin of error. The other contests show the following leads for Democrats:

• Michigan: 11 percentage points
• Texas: 7 percentage points
• Maine: 6 percentage points
• Ohio: 5 percentage points
• Kansas: 5 percentage points
• Alaska: 2 percentage points
• Iowa: 1 percentage point

Senate balance

The current Senate stands at 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. Of the 35 seats up this cycle, most are traditional Republican strongholds. The outcome of the seven races will determine which party controls the chamber.

What is driving the shift

French essayist and economist Guy Sorman says a significant Republican defeat would end the MAGA movement, not only in the United States but also in parties that have identified with Trumpism to varying degrees, including in Poland. He considers such a defeat likely (Wybory w USA będą decydujące nie tylko dla Donalda Trumpa. "Dzień sądu" | Newsweek – newsweek.pl).