France presses Germany to define rules for long-range missile strikes on Russia, citing nuclear escalation risk

In brief

• France is asking Germany to clarify how it would use long-range missiles against Russia in a conflict.
• Paris fears a conventional strike could provoke a nuclear response and push Europe into a nuclear war.
• Germany is expanding ground-launched missiles with ranges from 500 km to over 2,000 km, and a senior German official says Berlin agrees a shared doctrine is needed.

Paris wants a clear German doctrine

France is pressing Germany to state how it would use long-range missiles if a conflict with Russia broke out, according to the Financial Times, which cited six sources familiar with the talks (Francja i Niemcy dyskutują, jak miałaby przebiegać wojna z Rosją – Onet) (Франция опасается ядерного ответа России из-за доктрины Германии по применению ракет большой дальности — FT – NV). French officials have started discussions with their German counterparts to align Berlin's approach to so-called deep precision strikes with France's nuclear strategy (Франция попросила Германию определиться, как она будет применять дальнобойные ракеты в случае войны с Россией. Париж опасается ядерного удара – Meduza) (Франція боїться ядерної відповіді РФ через німецьку доктрину щодо використання ракет – FT – Українська правда).

The fear of an accidental nuclear threshold

A French official warned that a conventional strike on a Russian target could draw a nuclear answer, and that Moscow might misread the signal (Франція вимагає від Німеччини узгодити правила ударів по РФ через ризик ядерної війни, – FT – UNIAN) (У Європі назріває конфлікт через Путіна та ядерну зброю: що сталося між Францією і Німеччиною – TSN). Paris is also concerned that Russia would hold France responsible for attacks carried out by its partners, a worry the same official reportedly voiced (Франція тисне на Німеччину щодо правил можливих ударів по РФ, аби ті не спровокували "ядерну відповідь", – FT – Espreso). A source said France has built up a set of unwritten nuclear rules that Germany lacks, and that a clear, public doctrine would leave less room for misreading.

Germany's expanding arsenal

The concern comes as Germany, along with Britain, Poland and countries in northern Europe and the Baltics, is substantially expanding its long-range weapons (FT: Франція боїться ядерної відповіді РФ через німецькі ракети – Європейська правда). Berlin is buying and developing ground-launched missiles with ranges from 500 km to more than 2,000 km, which would let its forces hit targets deep inside Russia. The buildup is part of a wider German push to lead a European rearmament drive, driven by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and doubts about long-term US security commitments under Donald Trump.

German position

A senior German official said Berlin fully agrees that a shared doctrine is needed and rejected the idea that Paris was pushing for it while Berlin resisted. The official said the talks had been delayed by internal French debate over the future of its nuclear strategy, but that they were now gaining momentum.