Global fossil CO2 emissions dip slightly in 2026, but total emissions still rise

In brief

• Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to about 38.2 billion tonnes.
• The decline is driven mainly by lower oil use after the Iran conflict raised prices, which researchers see as temporary.
• Including land-use change, total emissions are still expected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes.

Fossil emissions edge down

The Global Carbon Project expects emissions from coal, oil and gas to total about 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2026, a decline of 0.4% from the previous year ("Global Carbon Project" - CO2-Ausstoß aus fossilen Brennstoffen sinkt leicht - insgesamt steigen klimaschädliche Emissionen aber – Deutschlandfunk) (Forschungsbericht: Fossile CO2-Emissionen gehen leicht zurück – tagesschau.de) (Weltweite CO₂-Emission aus fossilen Brennstoffen sinken leicht – DER SPIEGEL) (Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026 – University of Exeter News). The drop follows a rise of a little over 1% in 2025 and an average increase of close to 1% a year over the decade to 2025 (Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows – DW).

Oil leads the decline

Most of the fall comes from oil, where use is projected to drop by 1.9%. Researchers link this mainly to higher prices and supply disruption linked to the Iran war, including the Strait of Hormuz. They describe it as a short-term response rather than a structural shift. Natural gas fell by 0.3%, while coal use rose by about 0.6%.

Clean power growth is not yet enough

Global energy demand is still increasing. Around two-thirds of that growth is being covered by new wind and solar capacity and a rising number of electric cars. Even so, the pace of clean energy expansion has not yet reached the level needed for a lasting decline in fossil emissions.

Total emissions still climb

When land-use change is included, total emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in the previous year. The increase is attributed to deforestation, weaker forests in Asia and fires on drained peatland. Weakening natural carbon sinks also contributes.

Remaining carbon budget shrinks

The study puts the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at 150 billion tonnes. At the current rate, that is less than four years of emissions. The findings were published in Earth System Science Data and presented at the UN climate conference in Antalya, with a companion paper in Nature Climate Change.

| Metric (2026 projection) | Billion tonnes CO2 | |---|---| | Fossil CO2 emissions | 38.2 | | Total CO2 including land use | 43.3 | | Total CO2 in 2025 | 42.8 | | Remaining carbon budget (1.5°C) | 150 |