NATO weighs biggest shift in military planning in two decades, putting Russia first

In brief

• NATO's 32 members have started talks on new military capability targets, the biggest revision of allied planning in at least two decades.
• The draft would drop the requirement to fight a major European war and several smaller crises at once, with countries planning for one of two scenarios.
• The change reflects a Russia-focused priority and US pressure to refocus the alliance on Europe; the new requirements are to be agreed by February.

Russia moves to the top of NATO's planning

The 32 NATO member states have started negotiations on the alliance's next capability targets, which set out the forces and equipment each country should provide if a conflict breaks out and who pays for them (ЗМІ: НАТО прагне надати пріоритет протидії РФ та скоротити місії за кордоном – Європейська правда). According to Politico, the discussions are the most far-reaching review of allied military planning in at least two decades. Russia is expected to be the main reference point for the plans (НАТО готує масштабну військову реформу через загрозу нападу Росії – Espreso).

Dropping the two-front requirement

Under a draft of the planning document, allies would no longer be expected to supply enough forces to fight a large war in Europe while also carrying out several smaller crisis-management operations at the same time. Instead, countries would plan against one of two scenarios, according to four NATO diplomats who spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity.

Former NATO assistant secretary general for defence investment Camille Grand said the proposal reflects a clear view that a serious emergency in Europe would take precedence over any other priority or event.

Washington's push

The shift matches pressure from the United States to refocus the alliance on defending Europe. Washington calls the approach "NATO 3.0". The talks are part of work on a document known as the Political Guidance, which forms part of a four-year cycle of defence planning.

Timeline

The new defence requirements are to be agreed by February. Until then, the wording and the funding principles remain under negotiation among the member states.