New Zealand election 2026: National narrowly ahead of Labour as counting continues, no clear majority

In brief

• New Zealand's election produced no clear winner, with National and Labour each near 29 percent of the vote.
• National won 42 seats in preliminary results, 19 short of a majority, while Labour took 36.
• About 400,000 special votes remain to be counted, and official results are due on 27 November.

Near-deadlock in the count

With the bulk of ballots counted, National and Labour are almost level at roughly 29 percent each (Voľby na Novom Zélande nepriniesli jasného víťaza, o budúcej vláde rozhodnú koaličné rokovania – HNonline.sk) (Parlamentswahl in Neuseeland: Regierungspartei und Labour liegen nahezu gleichauf – DER SPIEGEL) (Parlamentswahl in Neuseeland: Regierungspartei und Labour nahezu gleichauf – tagesschau.de). The electoral commission's party-vote figures put Labour at 29.36 percent and National at 29.21 percent in one set of preliminary numbers, a gap that shows how tight the contest is. Labour holds a slightly higher share of the vote, while National has won more electorate seats, which leaves the outcome in question.

About 400,000 special votes, which make up nearly 14 percent of all ballots, still need to be counted. They include votes cast from overseas and votes cast outside a voter's home electorate. In past elections, they have tended to favour left-leaning parties.

Seat totals and coalition arithmetic

National won 42 seats in preliminary results, 19 short of a simple majority in the 120-seat parliament, while Labour took 36 (No clear winner after tight New Zealand general election – BBC News). If a deal were reached, National's coalition with the libertarian ACT and the populist New Zealand First would edge ahead of the left-leaning bloc, though only narrowly (Nach Parlamentswahl - Kopf-an Kopf-Rennen zwischen Regierung und Opposition in Neuseeland – Deutschlandfunk). Some outlets noted that the total number of seats could change after the count, which would raise the threshold for a majority.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said his coalition has a mandate to form the next government, while acknowledging the margins are too narrow for a final decision.

The kingmaker question

The liberal Opportunity Party cleared the 5 percent threshold and enters parliament, placing it in a position to influence the outcome. Its leader has said she could work with whichever party wins the most seats.

Why the result is still open

Several seats were decided by very small margins, and the special votes could shift the balance (New Zealand facing weeks of uncertainty with election ‘too close to call’ – The Guardian). Final official results are not due until 27 November.

Campaign issues

The campaign focused on the cost of living, unemployment and the state of the health system.