PKB Polski spowalnia do 3,5% w III kwartale, tempo wzrostu słabnie

In brief

• Poland's GDP grew 3.5% year on year in Q3 2026, slower than the 4.1% recorded in Q2.
• Quarter on quarter, output rose 0.8%, slightly below economists' expectations.
• A weaker statistical base and high fuel prices weighed on consumption, though growth remains strong by EU standards.

Growth loses pace in the third quarter

Poland's gross domestic product rose 3.5% in real terms in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) published on 13 November. In the second quarter the figure had stood at 4.1% (W III kwartale polska gospodarka urosła solidnie, ale rozpęd nieco osłabł – Analizy.pl) (PKB Polski w III kw. 2026 r. GUS podał wstępne dane – Puls Biznesu) (Wzrost gospodarczy Polski nieco spowolnił. Są nowe dane GUS o PKB – Rzeczpospolita).

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, output increased 0.8%. Economists had expected a slightly stronger result.

Base effects and fuel prices weigh on the figure

According to business weekly Business Insider Polska, the slowdown reflects two factors: an unfavourable statistical base from the previous year and household consumption that was held back by high fuel prices (Najnowsze dane o polskim PKB. Wyraźne hamowanie wzrostu – Business Insider Polska). The same outlet noted that Poland still ranks at the top of the EU growth table even as the readings show the first signs of fatigue (Polska gospodarka zwalnia, ale i tak zostawia Europę w tyle. Najnowsze dane o PKB – Business Insider Polska).

Forecasts and the risk of revisions

Bankier.pl pointed out that the economy still appears to be on track to meet full-year growth forecasts of at least 3.5% (Hamowanie polskiej gospodarki w trzecim kwartale. Tempo jednak wciąż wysokie – Bankier.pl). The figures are preliminary, however, and GUS may revise them when more complete data become available.

Key figures

• Q2 2026 GDP growth (year on year): 4.1%
• Q3 2026 GDP growth (year on year): 3.5%
• Q3 2026 GDP growth (quarter on quarter): 0.8%

Read also

• Poland Raises Q2 2026 GDP Growth Estimate to 4.1%