Putin's four war bets: two have failed, two could still work, WSJ reports

In brief

• The Wall Street Journal says two of Putin's four strategies for defeating Ukraine have already failed.
• The failed bets were battlefield collapse and pressure on Kyiv from the Trump administration.
• The remaining bets are economic paralysis through missile and drone strikes and waning European support.
• Most analysts expect Moscow to reassess its approach in early 2027.

Two strategies have failed

According to The Wall Street Journal (Ukraina nie pękła, a Trump nie wymusił kapitulacji. Putin bierze na celownik zimę i europejskich wyborców – Bankier.pl) («Россияне будут ждать весны». Две из четырех стратегий Путина в войне против Украины провалились — WSJ – NV) (Провал на фронті і ставка на зиму: у Путіна було чотири плани перемогти Україну, два з них уже не працюють — WSJ – TSN), Russian President Vladimir Putin has built his approach to the war in Ukraine on four bets. Two of them rest on the idea that the Ukrainian army would collapse on the battlefield, or that the administration of US President Donald Trump would force Kyiv to accept Moscow's terms. Neither has materialised, and both are now judged to be playing poorly for the Kremlin (У Путіна було 4 плани перемогти Україну: 2 вже провалилися, а 2 ще можуть спрацювати, - WSJ – UNIAN).

Two strategies still in play

The remaining two bets look more likely to bear fruit before next year. The first is an attempt to paralyse Ukraine's economy through sustained missile and drone strikes (WSJ: У Путина было четыре плана по Украине – Charter 97). The second is a wager that European support for Kyiv will erode as eurosceptic and anti-aid parties gain ground.

Moscow's aims have not changed

Talks in Abu Dhabi this week, mediated by the United States, suggested the Kremlin still holds to its original goals: to split Ukraine apart, bring it under control and rewrite the post-war security order in Europe.

When Moscow may act

Most observers expect Putin to wait until early 2027 before judging whether his strategies are working, and then decide whether to stay the course or adjust. Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said Russia would wait for spring, watching the results of the missile campaign and the outcome of the French presidential election before taking stock.

The assessment means the coming months, particularly the winter, will test whether economic pressure and shifting European politics can deliver what the battlefield and Washington have not.