Ukraine's population could fall to 25 million by 2040, The Economist reports

In brief

• Ukraine's population could shrink to about 25 million by 2040 under a UN projection cited by The Economist.
• Territory under government control has fallen from roughly 37 million to 27-28 million since 2022, with emigration as the main driver.
• Falling willingness to return and record-low birth rates deepen the demographic crisis.

Population decline

The population of Ukraine is shrinking sharply. According to a UN projection cited by The Economist, government-controlled territory could hold only about 25 million people by 2040 if current trends continue (Україна може втратити ще мільйони людей: скільки населення залишиться до 2040 року – TSN) (Населення України скоротиться до 25 мільйонів вже через 14 років, - The Economist – UNIAN).

Scale of losses since 2022

Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the population of territory under Kyiv's control has fallen from roughly 37 million to between 27 and 28 million. Much of the loss comes from people who left the country or from residents of occupied areas. The Economist estimates that 3 to 5 million people remain in occupied territories.

Emigration and return intentions

More than 5 million Ukrainian refugees live abroad, most of them in European countries. The willingness to return is falling. A survey by the Centre for Economic Strategy found that at the end of 2022, 74% of Ukrainians abroad planned to go back, while now only 43% do.

Birth rate

Birth rates have also dropped to record lows. Mobilisation, combat losses, economic instability and uncertainty about the future have led many couples to delay having children. Demographer Svitlana Aksonova has warned that the longer couples wait, the greater the risk that a child will never be born.