In brief

• Analysts see Democrats having good chances to win the House and possibly the Senate in the November 3 midterms.
• A Democratic majority could allow renewed US military aid to Ukraine, which Trump has largely halted.
• Aid would need two-thirds of votes in each chamber to overcome a Trump veto.
• Democrats could also curb presidential powers over the Iran war and Russian diesel sanctions.

Democrats eye control of Congress

Nonpartisan analysts quoted by Reuters see good chances for Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives and possibly in the Senate (Перемога демократів у Конгресі може відкрити Україні шлях до нової допомоги від США, — Reuters – Espreso) (Відновлення військової допомоги Україні: перемога демократів на виборах відбере важелі впливу у Трампа – TSN). Such a result would end two years of Republican control in Washington and give Democrats a share of power over foreign and defense policy (Демократы могут возобновить помощь Украине в случае победы на промежуточных выборах 3 ноября — Reuters – NV).

Path to renewed aid for Ukraine

Since Donald Trump returned to office, Washington has largely stopped direct financial and military support to Ukraine, which is fighting Russia's invasion, despite backing from both parties in Congress. Republican lawmakers have also criticized recent moves, including the easing of sanctions on Russian diesel, weeks after Trump signed a sanctions bill into law.

Control of at least one chamber would let Democrats decide which bills reach the floor. A new aid package would then need two-thirds of votes in each chamber to override a presidential veto, so the outcome would depend partly on Republicans willing to join the effort (США можуть поновити військову допомогу Україні після виборів до Конгресу, - Reuters – UNIAN).

Limits on presidential power

Democrats argue that Republicans let the Trump administration effectively decide on war and spending, although the US Constitution assigns those powers to Congress. Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, who could chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has already introduced a bipartisan bill to block Trump's plan to return Russian diesel to world markets.

Democrats could also target the war with Iran, which Trump began on February 28 without congressional approval. The election's result is therefore likely to shape not only Ukraine policy but also how far the White House can act alone on foreign conflicts.