In brief

• Germany's Federal Employment Agency head Andrea Nahles expects about 800,000 jobs to disappear over 15 years because of AI.
• She also expects a similar number of new jobs to be created.
• Business services and analytical roles at insurers and banks are most exposed, while skilled trades appear more resilient.
• Demographic decline and low net migration add pressure on the labour supply.

Job losses concentrated in service and finance roles

Andrea Nahles, who leads the Bundesagentur für Arbeit, told the Handelsblatt that the agency expects around 800,000 jobs in Germany to disappear because of AI over the next 15 years (Umelá inteligencia zruší aj vytvorí státisíce pracovných miest, tvrdí šéfka nemeckého úradu práce – HNonline.sk) (Bundesagentur für Arbeit - Nahles: Rund 800.000 Jobs in Deutschland könnten aufgrund von KI wegfallen – Deutschlandfunk) (Binnen 15 Jahren: Nahles: «800.000 Jobs werden aufgrund von KI wegfallen» – ZEIT ONLINE). She added that a comparable number of new jobs would likely be created in the same period (Bundesagentur für Arbeit: Nahles sieht viele Jobs durch KI gefährdet – aber nicht im Handwerk – ZEIT ONLINE).

The impact will be uneven. Nahles said business services providers and analytical positions at insurers and banks would feel the cuts most sharply (KI: Andrea Nahles rechnet mit Verlust von 800.000 Jobs – DER SPIEGEL). Researchers at the agency's Institute for Employment Research (IAB) had reached a similar magnitude of job change at the end of 2025.

Skilled trades seen as more resilient

Nahles said skilled crafts appear comparatively robust, since the core of the work remains manual and personal. She also said that workers with little or no formal training still have opportunities, because in some cases replacing them with AI does not pay off.

She cautioned, however, that no occupation is fully immune to automation.

Demographics add pressure

Nahles linked the debate to demographics. She said Germany loses about 500,000 workers net per year because of an ageing population, and that net migration has recently fallen to its lowest level in many years. Against that backdrop, she argued that AI investment should be pursued mainly where it raises productivity, not simply because it is fashionable.

The comments show that the agency sees AI as a restructuring of the labour market rather than a net reduction in employment. The transition will require retraining and placement support for affected workers.