In brief

• Germany's chancellor Friedrich Merz has threatened to block the EU's 2028–2034 budget unless all member states help finance Ukraine from 2027.
• Kyiv faces a projected 70 billion euro shortfall in 2027, and the EU has pledged about 45 billion euros to cover two-thirds of it.
• The issue is due to be settled at the EU leaders' summit in Dublin.

Berlin ties its budget support to Ukraine funding

(Niemcy mogą zablokować budżet UE jeśli nie wszystkie państwa udzielą wsparcia finansowego Ukrainie – Puls Biznesu) (Ultimátum z Nemecka. Berlín tlačí na EÚ, aby sa všetky štáty podieľali na financovaní Ukrajiny – HNonline.sk) (Канцлер Германии пригрозил заблокировать бюджет ЕС, если все страны блока не договорятся о финансовой поддержке Украины – Meduza) The Financial Times, which saw the letter, characterised the message as an ultimatum. (Merz dává ultimátum: Buď Ukrajinu podpoří všichni včetně ČR, nebo zablokuje rozpočet EU – Novinky.cz) (Merz threatens to block EU budget unless agreement is reached on Ukraine funding – FT – Ukrinform) (Мерц готовий заблокувати бюджет ЄС, якщо країни не фінансуватимуть Україну, - FT – UNIAN)

The size of the gap

Kyiv faces a projected shortfall of 70 billion euros in 2027. (Merz grozi blokadą budżetu UE. Chodzi o wsparcie dla Ukrainy – RMF24) (Мерц поставив Європу перед вибором: Німеччина висунула ультиматум через Україну — FT – TSN) The EU approved a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine earlier this year, but that sum is not enough to cover next year's needs. The bloc has said it will cover about two-thirds of the gap, roughly 45 billion euros.

Merz's demand

In the letter, Merz argued that a collective commitment from every member state to contribute fairly is a precondition for resolving the Ukraine question and for discussing other matters with financial consequences. He also wants future decisions on Ukraine funding taken by qualified majority rather than unanimity.

Why Germany has leverage

Germany is the largest net contributor to the EU budget. Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Czechia, which have signalled they will not provide further financial aid to Kyiv, are net recipients of EU funds. Merz intends to use Germany's financial weight to secure help for Ukraine beyond 2027.

What comes next

Merz wants the Ukraine shortfall settled at the leaders' meeting in Dublin on Thursday and Friday. Budget talks for the period from 2028 are running in parallel. Elections due next year in France, Italy and Poland could complicate agreement, and the French presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen has said she would end financial support for Ukraine if elected.