Political scientist: only a partial ceasefire is realistic after Abu Dhabi talks

In brief

• Political scientist Aleksandr Morozov expects only a partial ceasefire, such as an energy truce or a halt in the Black Sea, to come out of the Abu Dhabi talks.
• Morozov forecasts that Kyiv will prioritise a humanitarian outcome, such as a prisoner exchange.
• He argues that Jared Kushner's remarks could let Moscow raise security guarantees for the whole continent.

Expectations for the talks

Aleksandr Morozov, speaking on Dozhd TV about the talks in Abu Dhabi, said a realistic outcome would be a partial ceasefire («Позитивным результатом было бы достижение частичного прекращения огня». Политолог — о переговорах в Абу-Даби – TV Rain). He gave as examples an energy truce or a halt to fighting in the Black Sea. In his view, expectations for the meeting itself are very low.

Ukraine seeks a humanitarian result

In Morozov's assessment, Kyiv will seek above all a humanitarian result, such as a prisoner exchange. He judged that such an outcome would be easier to achieve than a political agreement. This is his forecast, not a confirmed position of the Ukrainian side.

The security guarantees issue

Morozov sees the most worrying element in a statement by Jared Kushner. In his view, those words allow Moscow to put the security of the whole continent on the table. He recalled that Russia had earlier presented memoranda proposing for itself "security guarantee measures".

Conditions for further talks

The political scientist believes discussions on a security architecture can begin only after an earlier ceasefire. Without that step, he suggests, the debate on guarantees will remain at the level of declarations.

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• Kushner outlines wider US-backed security framework for Europe beyond Ukraine ceasefire, first trilateral talks set for Abu Dhabi