Allegro Raises Guidance After Beating Q3 Estimates; New InPost Deal Seen Adding PLN 270-280 Million to EBITDA

In brief

• Allegro beat third-quarter estimates, with adjusted EBITDA of PLN 1.13 billion against PLN 1.08 billion expected, and raised its 2026 guidance.
• A new framework agreement with InPost runs to 2031 with a minimum value of PLN 8 billion and lower delivery rates.
• The new rates apply to all of 2026 and are expected to add PLN 270-280 million to adjusted EBITDA, also ending an arbitration dispute.

Stronger quarter and raised outlook

Allegro finished the third quarter of 2026 with results that beat the market's forecasts. Adjusted EBITDA reached PLN 1.13 billion, while analysts polled by PAP Biznes had expected PLN 1.08 billion (Allegro z wynikami powyżej oczekiwań i wyższą prognozą na 2026 rok – Bankier.pl). On the strength of that result, the group raised its full-year guidance for 2026.

A new delivery contract with InPost

The company has signed a framework agreement with InPost covering off-home delivery services through 31 December 2031. The minimum value of the contract is PLN 8 billion (Allegro i InPost podpisały umowę do 2031 roku. Minimalna wartość kontraktu to 8 mld zł – Bankier.pl). The deal also ends the arbitration dispute between the two firms, which had been running alongside the negotiations (Umowa między Allegro i InPostem na 8 mld zł. Koniec arbitrażu między spółkami – Rzeczpospolita).

The new rates apply retroactively to the full year 2026. Allegro expects this to add PLN 270-280 million to adjusted EBITDA for the year (Allegro poprawia wyniki i obniża koszty dostaw. Umowa z InPostem ma wzmocnić EBITDA – Puls Biznesu). The company points to lower delivery costs as the main source of the gain.

Why it matters

Delivery is one of the largest cost items for a marketplace that ships a high volume of parcels. A long-term fixed pricing structure gives Allegro a clearer cost base for planning, and the retroactive element means the savings are already reflected in this year's numbers. For InPost, the agreement secures a multi-year volume commitment, although the lower rates reduce its per-parcel revenue from this client (Koniec sporu, jest nowa umowa. InPost będzie taniej dostarczał zakupy z Allegro – Wirtualnemedia.pl).

The deal also closes a period of friction between the two companies, whose founders, Rafał Brzoska and Marcin Kuśmierz, were involved in the talks. Investors will now watch whether the improved margins hold in the coming quarters.