Copernicus: 1.5°C Threshold Likely Breached in 2026, October Hottest on Record

In brief

• The EU Copernicus service says 2026 will almost certainly exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold.
• October 2026 was the warmest October on record, at 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
• 2026 is expected to be the second-warmest year after 2024.

Second Year Above 1.5°C

The EU Earth observation programme Copernicus says 2026 will almost certainly push global average temperature more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, the second calendar year after 2024 to do so (EU-Dienst Copernicus: 1,5-Grad-Marke wird 2026 wohl überschritten – tagesschau.de) (Erderwärmung - Copernicus: 2026 wird fast sicher über der 1,5-Grad-Marke liegen – Deutschlandfunk). The threshold is formally considered breached only when measured as a multi-year average, a distinction the agency stressed (Wärmster Oktober der Messgeschichte - Copernicus: 1,5-Grad-Marke wird 2026 wohl erneut überschritten – Deutschlandfunk).

October Sets a Monthly Record

October 2026 was the warmest October since records began. Average near-surface air temperature stood 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and the global average reached 15.35 degrees Celsius (Oktober war der weltweit wärmste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen – DER SPIEGEL). It was the third consecutive month above the 1.5-degree mark.

Sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also set a new October high, averaging 20.95 degrees Celsius.

Forecast for the Year

Based on a statistical forecast, Copernicus expects 2026 to rank as the second-warmest year in the measurement record, behind 2024. The agency's projection comes ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya.

Background

The 1.5-degree goal dates to the 2015 Paris Agreement, under which governments agreed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees where possible and well below two degrees. Scientists regard single-year exceedances as a signal rather than a definitive breach, because the target concerns long-term trends.