Inflation in Poland is seen higher in 2027 under NBP's new November projection

In brief

• The National Bank of Poland kept its main reference rate at 3.75% and published a November inflation projection.
• The projection puts 2027 inflation at 3.1% to 5.3%, well above the July range of 1.5% to 4%.
• Government policy, energy prices and the global situation were named as the key risks.

Interest rates unchanged

The Monetary Policy Council kept its main reference rate at 3.75% after its two-day meeting, with the lombard rate at 4.25% and the deposit rate at 3.25% (Nowa projekcja inflacji NBP. Jaka inflacja będzie w Polsce w 2027 i 2028 roku? Stopy procentowe pozostają bez zmian - Super Biznes – se.pl). The bank's November projection, which uses data available up to October 15, assumes rates stay unchanged (Wzrost cen w Polsce. Oto najnowsza projekcja inflacji na najbliższe lata – Money.pl).

Inflation projection for 2026-2028

According to the projection, consumer price growth has a 50% probability of falling between 3.1% and 3.2% in 2026, compared with 2.4% to 3.3% in the July forecast (Inflacja w Polsce. NBP pokazał najnowsze prognozy – Business Insider Polska). For 2027 the range widens to 3.1% to 5.3%, against 1.5% to 4% previously. For 2028 the bank projects 1.4% to 4.4%.

| Year | November 2026 projection | July 2026 projection | |------|--------------------------|----------------------| | 2027 | 3.1%-5.3% | 1.5%-4% | | 2028 | 1.4%-4.4% | – |

Upside risks for 2027

The 2027 range is the main change. Its upper end is far above the earlier estimate, and the council pointed to government policy, energy prices and the global situation as the key risks. Economic output was also reviewed in the same projection.

Context from October data

The forecast comes a few days after October data showed inflation easing to 3.5% year on year, down from 4.1% in September, which was below market expectations. Even so, the NBP's new outlook suggests price pressure could return in the coming year.

Read also

• Polish inflation slows to 3.5% in October, below market forecasts