Polish inflation slows to 3.5% in October, below market forecasts

In brief

• Polish consumer inflation slowed to 3.5% year on year in October from 4.1% in September, according to GUS.
• Economists had expected 3.7%, so the drop was larger than forecast.
• The return of the CPN fuel package lowered fuel prices and helped pull the rate down.
• Economists said core inflation may be near 3% and the RPP does not need to rush toward rate rises.

Inflation slows more than forecast

Consumer prices rose 3.5% year on year in October, down from 4.1% in September (Spadek inflacji w październiku. Minister finansów wskazuje przyczynę – Money.pl) (Inflacja w październiku w Polsce spadła dzięki CPN. Są nowe dane GUS – Rzeczpospolita). The market had expected 3.7% (Inflacja zaskoczyła. To może zmienić plany RPP – Money.pl). GUS published the flash estimate on Friday. The slowdown was steeper than economists had anticipated (Jest długo wyczekiwana zmiana w inflacji. GUS podał nowe dane o cenach w Polsce – Business Insider Polska) (CPN przyhamował inflację. Ale 2,5-procentowy cel pozostaje przekroczony – Bankier.pl).

Fuel prices behind the drop

The return of the CPN fuel package lowered fuel costs and pulled the headline rate down. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said the cheaper fuel contributed to the decline. Bankier noted that the administrative cut in fuel prices slowed the annual rate more than economists had projected.

Core inflation and interest rates

After the data, economists said core inflation may have fallen to about 3%. They also argued that the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) does not need to rush toward possible rate increases. Forecasts point to no near-term rise in loan costs (Takie będą konsekwencje zaskakującego spadku inflacji. Ekonomiści o stopach procentowych – Business Insider Polska).

Inflation trend and outlook

Inflation had climbed sharply over the previous three months before this reading.

Key figures

• October 2026 inflation: 3.5% year on year
• September 2026 inflation: 4.1% year on year
• Market forecast for October: 3.7% year on year
• Inflation target: 2.5%

Read also

• Consumer sentiment in Poland falls to its lowest level in months, GUS data show
• Poland Raises Q2 2026 GDP Growth Estimate to 4.1%