Iran War Reshapes Pentagon Plans: US Troop Cuts in Europe Smaller Than Expected, Bloomberg Reports

In brief

• The Pentagon now plans a smaller cut of its roughly 80,000 troops in Europe than the up to 25,000 allies had feared.
• The Iran war and rising NATO defence spending are cited as reasons for the revised plan.
• Allies expect a total reduction of about 5,000 troops, mostly in Germany.
• Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to give Trump final recommendations on 1 December.

Smaller cut under review

About 80,000 American service members are currently stationed in Europe (Трамп передумав: Пентагон готує новий план скорочення військ в Європі – TSN). Allies had worried that Washington could withdraw as many as 25,000 of them (США виведуть з Європи в рази менше своїх військових, ніж планували раніше – ЗМІ – Українська правда) (Пентагон меняет планы сокращения войск США в Европе, оно может быть меньше, чем планировалось — Bloomberg – NV). Recent assessments now point to a considerably smaller drawdown, with one source telling Bloomberg that allies expect a total reduction of roughly 5,000 troops.

Why the plans changed

Washington has viewed the rise in NATO members' defence spending favourably, which has weighed on the case for deep cuts (Війна з Іраном змінила плани Пентагону: війська США в Європі скоротять менше, ніж очікувалося, – Bloomberg – Espreso). The conflict with Iran has also made clear how much US operations in the Middle East depend on bases and access in Europe. Officials reportedly recognised that forces stationed on the continent help project American power into the region.

Where the cuts would fall

Most of the reduction would hit Germany, which hosts the largest American contingent in Europe. At the same time, Washington plans to strengthen its presence on NATO's eastern flank, and countries bordering Russia have offered to cover part of the costs.

Who decides and when

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby is expected to submit a formal report on the proposed changes to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is expected to give final recommendations to Trump on 1 December. US ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker has said he does not expect a large-scale reduction, and the matter remains under internal discussion.