US Midterms 2026: Polls Suggest Voters May Punish Trump at the Ballot Box

In brief

• The article covers the November 3 US midterm elections for all House seats, 35 Senate seats and governorships in 36 states.
• Democrats are widely expected to gain in the House, with the Senate outcome likely to depend on a few closely contested states.
• Voter frustration over living costs, tariffs and the war with Iran is central to the polling picture.

Election day and what is at stake

Voters are casting ballots for all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Governors are also being chosen in 36 states. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in both chambers, which has let President Donald Trump push through much of his agenda (US-Kongresswahlen - Die Zwischen-Wahlen laufen - Demokraten hoffen auf Sieg über Trumps Republikaner bei Midterms – Deutschlandfunk) (Midterms 2026 in den USA: Kippen die Machtverhältnisse? So laufen die Zwischenwahlen – DER SPIEGEL). A Democratic win in either chamber would allow the opposition to block spending bills and open investigations, while Trump would be able to veto Democratic legislation (US-Kongresswahlen - Demokraten hoffen auf Sieg über Trumps Republikaner bei Midterms – Deutschlandfunk).

Why voters are turning away

Price increases linked to Trump's tariffs and the conflict with Iran have weighed heavily on households (Zwischenwahlen in den USA: Bleibt das Land regierbar? – tagesschau.de). Earlier this year, the White House pointed to lower prices for eggs, dairy and fuel as evidence of success, but many voters say everyday expenses have since climbed again. Polls show that some people who backed Trump in 2024 have now distanced themselves from him.

What analysts expect

Election analysts expect gains for Democrats, particularly in the House (Was das Rennen bei den Midterms entscheiden könnte – tagesschau.de). The Senate picture is more uncertain, and the outcome is likely to hinge on a handful of closely contested states.

Special ballot measures

Separately, California voters are deciding on a proposal to introduce a tax on high earners, while Idaho and three other states are voting on abortion rules. Preliminary results are expected overnight into Wednesday, but a close race could take several days to resolve.

Read also

• US midterms test whether Democrats can check Trump's final two years in office
• US midterm elections on November 3: Democrats seek control of Congress as Trump signals possible veto fight
• US midterm elections under way as voters head to the polls in Vermont and the East Coast