US Senate battlegrounds: Democrats still face risks, but have chances in states where they have not won for nearly 100 years

In brief

• Democrats are widely expected to win the House in the November 3 midterms, though the margin may be narrower than polls suggest.
• The Senate contest is closer, with several races in Republican-held states such as Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska in play.
• Early voting had reached about 43 million ballots, and Republicans have received heavy financial backing from Trump and Elon Musk.

Democrats favoured in the House

Democrats are considered likely to take the House of Representatives in Tuesday's midterm elections, which fall in the middle of Donald Trump's presidential term. Polls point to a clear lead for the party, though the margin in the final result may be smaller than surveys suggest, according to Reuters analysis. (Prieskumy sľubujú demokratom veľký úspech. Realita volieb môže byť oveľa tesnejšia – Aktuality.sk) (Demokraté míří ve sněmovně k vítězství. „Republikánským“ volebním mapám navzdory – ČT24) (Demokrati mieria na víťazstvo v Kongrese. O osude Senátu rozhodne niekoľko tesných súbojov – Aktuality.sk)

A tighter contest for the Senate

The Senate picture is less clear. Democrats must defend every seat they currently hold and win at least four seats now held by Republicans to gain a majority. (Poslední průzkumy nevěstí republikánům nic dobrého – Novinky.cz) Analysts at the Cook Political Report have listed seven races as toss-ups, while the Sabato's Crystal Ball rating identifies five.

Unexpected openings in Republican-held states

The most striking signals come from states that have rarely backed Democrats in Senate contests. Recent polling commissioned by The New York Times and Siena University shows Democratic candidates ahead in Texas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and in Kansas, which has not done so since 1932. Polls in Iowa show candidates from both camps at roughly the same level, with no clear edge.

Turnout and past polling errors

The outcome may depend on whether Democratic voters turn out in large numbers. Some 43 million Americans had already cast ballots early by the end of the week, and early-vote data has favoured Democrats. (Senátní bojiště v USA. Demokraté se mají stále čeho obávat, šanci ale mají tam, kde ji neměli skoro 100 let – iROZHLAS) Republicans have also received heavy financial backing, with Trump and Elon Musk pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into party support.

What happens next

A Democratic House would significantly complicate Trump's legislative agenda for the final two years of his term. Control of the Senate would determine how much of his nominees and policies can pass unchallenged. Results are expected after polls close on Tuesday, and the final picture may take longer to emerge in close races.

Read also

• Democrats Lead in All Seven Key Senate Races Before Tuesday's Midterms