In brief

• At its November meeting, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) did not change interest rates.
• The NBP projection expects CPI inflation to reach 4.2% in 2027, the highest level in the projection horizon.
• According to the projection, inflation is to return to the target only in 2028, while GDP growth gradually slows down.

Figures in the projection

The Monetary Policy Council did not change interest rates at its November meeting. The NBP's main reference rate remains at 3.75%, the lombard rate is 4.25%, and the deposit rate is 3.25%. (CPN albo wyższa inflacja. NBP pokazał, co może wydarzyć się w 2027 roku – Bankier.pl) Some economists, before the decision, believed the new projection could justify tightening monetary policy, but most forecasters expected rates to be kept unchanged. (Wyraźny wzrost inflacji w prognozach NBP. To może być argument za podwyżką stóp – Business Insider Polska)

• 2026: 3.1% (previously 2.9%)
• 2027: 4.2% (previously 2.7%)
• 2028: 2.8% (previously 2.2%)

The central bank expects average annual CPI inflation to be 3.1% in 2026, 4.2% in 2027, and 2.8% in 2028. The peak falls in 2027, and only in 2028 is price growth expected to fall markedly. (NBP podnosi prognozę inflacji: w 2027 r. średnio 4,2 proc. Wzrost PKB wyhamuje do 2,8 proc. – Puls Biznesu) The projection assumes unchanged interest rates. (Inflacja znowu w górę? NBP pokazał najnowsze prognozy – RMF24)

What drives prices

According to the NBP, the CPN program, if maintained, would lower CPI inflation in 2027 by 0.9 percentage points. The projection also indicates that inflation will return to the target only in 2028. (Projekcja NBP: Inflacja mocno w górę w 2027 r. Wdrożenie ETS 2 grozi jej skokiem – Rzeczpospolita) (NBP przedstawia prognozy. Taka będzie inflacja i wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce – Business Insider Polska)

Economic growth

GDP growth is expected to gradually slow in the coming years. The NBP estimates it at 2.8% in 2028. Forecasts for 2027 point to a risk of higher costs in the economy, which may limit the pace of growth.

Risks and outlook

Subsequent RPP decisions raise the question of whether the central bank will respond to the acceleration of prices with a rate hike. Economists assess this scenario differently. According to the NBP president, signals coming from the council point to a hawkish stance of the monetary authorities. (Prezentacja listopadowej projekcji NBP w piątek o godz. 12.30 – PAP Biznes)

Also read

• RPP utrzymała stopy procentowe bez zmian. Glapiński nie wyklucza podwyżki w styczniu