In brief

• The Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged, and the NBP reference rate stands at 3.75%.
• NBP Governor Adam Glapiński does not rule out a rate hike, and sees the greatest uncertainty in January.
• Analysts assess that if the situation in the commodities market improves, a hike can be avoided.

MPC decision

The Monetary Policy Council did not change its key interest rates, and the NBP reference rate remains at 3.75%. (RPP może uniknąć podwyżek stóp. Kluczowe będą ceny energii i paliw – Bankier.pl) The deposit rate is 3.25%, the lombard rate 4.25%, the bill rediscount rate 3.8%, and the bill discount rate 3.85%. (Stopy procentowe w Polsce w listopadzie 2026. RPP podjęła decyzję | TVN24 Biznes – tvn24.pl) The last cut this year took place at the beginning of March, when the Council lowered rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Why rates were left unchanged

According to reports, Council members concluded that the decline in inflation and the lack of signs that high fuel prices were passing through to other goods and services outweighed other factors. (Jest decyzja w sprawie stóp procentowych. Inflacja przeważyła szalę w RPP – Puls Biznesu) The background to this decision is also the drop in inflation in October, which, according to the NBP Governor, brought it down to the target. (Adam Glapiński komentuje decyzję o stopach procentowych – Business Insider Polska)

Expectations ahead of the meeting

Analyst Piotr Bielski from the Erste bank assessed that there are good chances of avoiding rate hikes thanks to a better situation in the commodities market and the growing probability that the CPN program will be extended. Inflation in the first quarter of 2027 would rise slightly above 4%.

NBP Governor's statement

Adam Glapiński warned that although inflation returned to the target in October, it may still rise significantly, and one should not assume that the period of elevated inflation has already ended. The Governor pointed out that the prolonged persistence of expensive commodities increases the likelihood that their price increases will pass through to the prices of other goods. If these risks grow, the Council is ready to act without delay. (Glapiński twierdzi, że stopy procentowe być może trzeba będzie podnieść – RMF24)

The Governor noted that the mood of Council members has clearly changed compared with the situation several months ago, when possible rate cuts were being considered. He cautioned, however, that a hike is not a foregone conclusion and it is unknown whether it would be a one-off move. In his view, rates most likely will not be raised in December, but in the first quarter this cannot be ruled out. The key factor for further decisions is to be the fate of the CPN program, and November will be an important month.

Read also

• Listopadowa podwyżka stóp mało realna, ale możliwa. Członek RPP komentuje
• Inflacja w Polsce w 2027 roku może sięgnąć 5,3 proc. NBP pokazał nową projekcję
• EBC utrzymał stopy procentowe w strefie euro. Wysokie ceny energii podtrzymują presję inflacyjną