In brief

• Shell's adjusted quarterly profit nearly doubled year on year to $10.8 billion.
• Record refining margins and higher LNG prices, driven by the Iran war, lifted results.
• The company raised its share buyback to $5 billion for the next three months.

Earnings beat forecasts

Shell's adjusted earnings for the July–September quarter reached $10.8 billion, up from $5.4 billion a year earlier and above analyst expectations of about $9.9 billion (Shell profits double to $10.8bn as Iran war pushes up profit margin on oil – The Guardian) (Shell nearly doubles quarterly profit year-on-year as refining margins soar to record high – CNBC) (Shell beats expectations with $10.8 billion profit, hikes buybacks – Investing.com). The result was the company's highest quarterly profit since 2022.

Refining margins at a record

The main driver was the refining business. Indicative refining margins reached $42 per barrel, well above the previous record of $28.04 set in the second quarter of 2022. Analysts had pointed to the same margin level before the results, forecasting it would rise from $24 per barrel in the second quarter (Shell stock rises on stronger refining margins, LNG pricing – Investing.com).

The squeeze on refined products followed the US-Israeli war with Iran, which entered its ninth month and disrupted global energy supplies. Higher commodity prices and tighter markets also lifted the company's gas business, where liquefied natural gas pricing improved.

Gas output and acquisitions

Analysts had expected extra production from recent acquisitions to help the integrated gas segment, including output tied to ARC Resources, whose purchase closed on 2 September.

Larger buyback

Shell said it will return $5 billion to shareholders through buybacks over the next three months, up from $3 billion in the previous quarter. Chief executive Wael Sawan credited the company's focus on operational performance for the strong quarter, which he said unfolded while the global energy system remained under heavy strain.

Shares and reaction

Shell's shares rose about 3% in early trading on Thursday. Climate campaigners criticised the profit jump, arguing that high fossil fuel earnings were coming at a cost to consumers and the climate.

Key figures

• Adjusted profit, Q3 2026: $10.8 billion
• Adjusted profit, Q3 2025: $5.4 billion
• Analyst consensus: $9.92 billion
• Buyback, next three months: $5 billion, up from $3 billion