German Economy Grows 0.2% in Third Quarter, Beating Expectations

In brief

• Germany's economy grew 0.2% in the July–September quarter, above the 0.1% most economists expected.
• Consumer spending rose slightly, while investment fell and exports slowed.
• Low water on the Rhine and pressure on chemicals and steel weighed on the economy.

Growth beats forecasts

Germany's gross domestic product rose 0.2% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, the Federal Statistical Office said in a preliminary estimate (Statistisches Bundesamt - Deutsche Wirtschaft wächst das dritte Quartal in Folge – Deutschlandfunk) (Deutsche Wirtschaft wächst überraschend im Sommer – tagesschau.de). Most economists had expected stagnation or at most a 0.1% gain. Growth was also stronger than forecast on a year-on-year basis, the highest annual rate in four years (Wzrost gospodarczy Niemiec największy od czterech lat. Przekroczył prognozy – Puls Biznesu).

Spending and investment diverge

Household consumption rose slightly, while investment fell (Trotz Niedrigwasser: Deutsche Wirtschaft um 0,2 Prozent gewachsen – FAZ.NET). Private spending remains subdued. Exports, which had grown strongly in the first half of the year, slowed noticeably in the third quarter, the statistics office found (BIP in Deutschland: Wirtschaftsleistung legt im dritten Quartal leicht zu – DER SPIEGEL).

Low water and industrial strain

Low water levels on the Rhine slowed inland shipping and weighed on the chemical and steel sectors. The economy also absorbed strain from the war involving Iran.

Quarterly trend

• First quarter: +0.4% on the previous quarter
• Second quarter: +0.3% on the previous quarter
• Third quarter: +0.2% on the previous quarter
• Economists' expectation for the third quarter: 0.1% at most

The third-quarter figure is based on preliminary data and may be revised.