In brief

• Brazil's Lula and Mexico's Sheinbaum will not attend the Ibero-American Summit in Madrid, reducing Spain's expectations for the event.
• Argentina's Javier Milei is still expected to attend despite recent insults toward Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
• Negotiators reached a preliminary agreement on a minimal joint declaration, which still requires ratification by 22 countries.

Key absences weigh on the Madrid summit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recently re-elected for a four-year term in Brazil, will not attend the XXX Ibero-American Summit, which Spain hosts on Wednesday and Thursday in Madrid. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will also stay away (Pinchazo en la Cumbre Iberoamericana: Lula y Shainbaum dejan solo a Sánchez – Expansión). Together, Brazil and Mexico are the two largest countries in Latin America and have the region's biggest economies, and both are regarded as strongholds of the left in a continent that has moved toward the right in recent years.

The absences of other major regional leaders further lowered expectations in Moncloa, the seat of the Spanish government. Argentina's Javier Milei is set to attend despite having recently insulted Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

A thin consensus on the final text

Despite the setbacks, negotiators reached a preliminary agreement on Tuesday on a minimal joint declaration (España salva el consenso iberoamericano con una declaración final de mínimos – EL PAÍS). The text still needs to be ratified by the heads of delegation of the 22 Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in Europe and the Americas. Spain, as host, has been working to keep the process intact after a deep ideological divide spilled into the talks.

The bar was low for the outcome. The previous summit, held in Cuenca, Ecuador, ended without a final declaration for the first time in 33 years. Reaching any joint text in Madrid is therefore seen as a modest success for the host country.