In brief

• Germany is making its support for the EU budget for 2028–2034 conditional on joint financing of Ukraine.
• Ukraine needs an additional €70 billion in 2027, while the EU has pledged about €45 billion.
• Four member states do not want to continue financially supporting Kyiv.
• The issue is to be discussed at the EU summit in Dublin.

Berlin's condition for the 2028–2034 budget

Chancellor Friedrich Merz informed European Council President António Costa in a letter that Germany's support for the EU budget for 2028–2034 depends on whether all member states take on a share of the costs of financing Ukraine (Merz threatens to block EU budget unless agreement is reached on Ukraine funding – FT – Ukrinform) (Мерц висунув ультиматум ЄС щодо допомоги Україні: Берлін може заблокувати бюджет на 2028-2034 роки – Espreso). According to the Financial Times, which reviewed the letter, Merz explicitly linked these two issues.

The funding gap for Ukraine

In spring 2026, the Union approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine (Канцлер Германии пригрозил заблокировать бюджет ЕС, если все страны блока не договорятся о финансовой поддержке Украины – Meduza). Kyiv estimates, however, that in 2027 it needs an additional €70 billion in external financing (Мерц готовий заблокувати бюджет ЄС, якщо країни не фінансуватимуть Україну, - FT – UNIAN). The EU has pledged to cover two-thirds of this amount, or about €45 billion. Four member states – Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Czechia – have nevertheless signalled that they do not intend to continue financially supporting Kyiv.

The demand for shared responsibility

In the letter, Merz called a joint commitment by all states to a fair contribution a precondition for resolving the problem. He also called for a solution that would provide Ukraine with stable, multi-year financing from 2028. The chancellor wants future decisions on this matter to be taken by qualified majority rather than unanimously.

Germany is the largest net contributor to the EU budget. Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Czechia, by contrast, are net beneficiaries, meaning they receive more from the budget than they pay into it. This arrangement heightens tensions around Berlin's demand.

The Dublin summit and elections

The ultimatum came ahead of the EU leaders' summit in Dublin, scheduled for Thursday and Friday (Мерц угрожает заблокировать бюджет ЕС, если все страны не согласятся финансировать Украину – NV). Merz wants the question of the missing funds for Kyiv to be resolved at this meeting.

An additional complication is the 2027 elections in several EU countries, including France, Italy and Poland. Marine Le Pen, the leading candidate in polls for the French presidency, has announced that if she wins, she will end financial support for Ukraine.